Can Maxime Bernier win in Portage—Lisgar?
What is the path to victory for Maxime Bernier on Monday night? What could prevent him from winning in the most favourable PPC riding in the country?
“Game on!” - Garth from Wayne’s World
The political landscape in Canada is often punctuated by by-elections that serve as important indicators of public sentiment and political shifts. Among these contests, the by-election in Portage—Lisgar holds particular significance. Taking place in the heartland of the country, this electoral race is poised to shape the political dynamics not only in the constituency but also at the national level. Historically, this riding has been a stronghold for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), and the upcoming by-election presents an opportunity for both the CPC to consolidate their base, as well as the best opportunity for the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) to win their first seat.
The Portage—Lisgar by-election has become a closely watched contest as two prominent candidates, Maxime Bernier and Branden Leslie, vie for the vacant seat in this historically Conservative stronghold. It has been a battle of ideologies; Bernier's PPC aims to challenge the status quo and attract disillusioned conservative voters who may feel that the CPC has strayed from its principles. Meanwhile, Leslie will seek to rally the Conservative base and emphasize the party's track record on rural issues, agriculture, and strong fiscal management.
This by-election holds broader implications for Canadian politics. A victory for Bernier would solidify the PPC's presence in the political landscape and potentially signal a shift in conservative politics. On the other hand, a win for Leslie and the CPC would reinforce their dominance in rural constituencies and maintain the party's traditional support base. The future direction of Canadian conservatism will be determined on Monday night.
There have been enough articles that have been published that highlight the key differences between Bernier and Leslie, and there has been a lot of coverage of the by-election and the campaigns thus far. A topic we haven’t seen much discussion on is election day scenarios and keys to victory for each side. That is a topic I will cover today.
Does Maxime Bernier have a chance of winning on Monday?
Short answer: Absolutely.
It is an uphill battle for him, but a battle that can be won for Bernier and his team. A few things need to happen, or not happen, on election day in order for Bernier to win his first seat under the PPC banner.
Mennonites and Hutterites show up at the ballot box.
My knowledge of the PPC Campaign in Portage—Lisgar during the 2021 election leads me to believe that the shockingly high results (21.6%, 9,790 total) of the 2021 PPC Candidate, Solomon Wiebe, can be largely credited to the turnout of Mennonites and Hutterites at the ballot box. Traditionally, these two religious groups stay out of politics and stay home on election day. However, the 2021 election was a galvanizing election for many religious communities, as provincial and federal governments had previously condemned, or even banned, religious gatherings in the name of “safety” and “protection” from COVID-19. It goes without saying that the current PPC Campaign is well aware of this and must galvanize these religious communities to once again cast their ballots for the PPC.
A unique feature of by-elections is that they commonly show substantially lower voter turnouts compared to general elections. If this trend holds the same in Portage—Lisgar, and Bernier can convince Mennonites and Hutterites to cast ballots for the PPC once again, the results may shock us again in 2023.
A strong Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaign
This point may be an addition to the first, but Bernier’s team will need to have a well-coordinated GOTV campaign to have a chance against the CPC machine.
Arguably, the biggest obstacle Bernier faces is that Portage—Lisgar has been a Conservative stronghold, with the CPC enjoying significant support in the constituency since the riding was founded. The second biggest obstacle he faces is that the CPC is a well-established political party with strong party machinery and resources. They will leverage their organizational strength, campaign infrastructure, and local networks to mobilize voters.
Bernier will need a highly motivated and well-coordinated team of volunteers to ensure all likely PPC voters make it to the ballot box. They will need hundreds of volunteers knocking on doors and making phone calls to the limited database of likely PPC voters they have, ensuring voters know where and when to vote and to address any barriers that likely PPC voters may have.
A strong GOTV is necessary to have a chance at winning for Bernier, as it is inevitable that the CPC will be highly organized on election night to ensure their base shows up. Even if Bernier holds the most support in the riding, all that matters at the end of the night is having more votes than your opponents. Can he mobilize the anti-abortion vote? Can he mobilize farmers? We will find out Monday.
Leftist voters stay left, or stay home.
While I hate the idea of “strategic” voting, it exists, and it may come into play on Monday.
If we have a close race, what could tip the scales in favour of the CPC are those who would do anything to prevent Bernier from winning a seat, including voting for the more “tame” Conservative candidate in Branden Leslie.
My past experience with the NDP and getting to know their supporters tells me that they have many principled voters but also many voters who are pessimistic about winning, so they aim to maximize their influence on the final outcome of an election by voting for a “lesser of two evils”. I would expect some traditional leftist voters, NDP or Liberal supporters, to find Bernier repugnant, possibly enough for them to consider voting for the CPC, who unlike the PPC, stands for child sex reassignments, neo-environmentalism, high immigration quotas, and is unequivocally pro-choice.
Another factor is voters who sway between voting Liberal and Conservative. For reasons stated above, this is an election I’d expect most swing voters to side with the CPC. I don’t reckon there would be a terrible amount of these voters in a riding like Portage—Lisgar, where Liberals placed fourth in the 2021 election, but combined with leftists who despise Bernier enough to vote CPC, it could be a factor to put the CPC over the top.
The by-election in Portage—Lisgar holds immense significance for the political landscape in Canada. With Maxime Bernier representing the People's Party of Canada (PPC) and Branden Leslie representing the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), this contest has become a battle of ideologies and a test of shifting political dynamics.
As we await the results of the by-election, it is evident that the future direction of Canadian conservatism hangs in the balance. The political landscape could witness significant changes, and the outcome will serve as a barometer of public sentiment and the evolving dynamics within the conservative movement.
Can Bernier and his team pull off an upset? What do you think?
This is a good summary of the situation and shares some of the nuance of party politics vs principled politics. That is, Canadian politics would function properly if people simply voted according to principle rather than according to how they think other people will vote.
If all people with conservative values vote for the candidate with conservative values, then the Maxime will win.
Very well put, there is a need for PPC supporters to get out and vote Monday night